WLJ - Markets https://wlj.net/articles.sec-14-1-markets.html Fri, 29 May 15 00:00:00 -0500 en hourly 1 Beef demand is the market’s big mystery https://wlj.net/article-14-beef-demand-is-the-market%25E2%2580%2599s-big-mystery.html Beef demand is the market’s big mystery
The markets may well be on the precipice before the fall, or they could have some good times ahead. It’s anyone’s game at this point, and it all depends on the consumer at the meat counter. How much beef are they willing to buy for the traditionally best beef demand period of the year, and how much are they willing to pay for it?.


...]]>
The double-edged sword of free trade agreements https://wlj.net/article-14-the-double-edged-sword-of-free-trade-agreements.html The double-edged sword of free trade agreements
The world economy is getting more global. And the global middle class is growing, and with it, its taste for beef. If the U.S. can’t supply it economically, the world will look to other countries, leaving the U.S. behind in the great trade race on beef exports.


...]]>
Avian Influenza and meat markets https://wlj.net/article-14-avian-influenza-and-meat-markets.html Avian Influenza and meat markets
As a result, the biggest and most immediate impact for consumers is in egg markets, especially in the north central part of the country. The reduced supply of table eggs as well as breaking eggs used in food service will impact consumers directly and indirectly.


...]]>
Farm costs rise to 10.5 cents of U.S. food dollar https://wlj.net/article-14-farm-costs-rise-to-105-cents-of-us-food-dollar.html Farm costs rise to 10.5 cents of U.S. food dollar
In the U.S., 10.5 cents of a typical dollar spent by consumers on domestically-produced food in 2013 represented value added by farm producers, up 8 percent from the previous two years. Products and services provided to farmers by agribusinesses, such as fertilizers and veterinary services, accounted for 2.


...]]>
What to know when selling a farm or ranch https://wlj.net/article-14-what-to-know-when-selling-a-farm-or-ranch.html What to know when selling a farm or ranch
If you are considering selling a farm or ranch, there are important tax and financial planning issues of which you need to be aware. Engaging in planning prior to a sale is critical for identifying these issues and for implementing strategies to effectively address them.


...]]>
What is in store for commodities in 2016 https://wlj.net/article-14-what-is-in-store-for-commodities-in-2016.html What is in store for commodities in 2016
The government economists and agricultural analysts broke out their crystal balls last week. The most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was the first to make projections on the 2016 situation.


...]]>
Markets higher on beef demand rumors https://wlj.net/article-14-markets-higher-on-beef-demand-rumors.html Markets higher on beef demand rumors
Retail beef demand is teasing the market with thoughts that it might be improving. The futures— both live and feeder—responded in kind with rising cutout values. And if the minimal cash fed trade that developed by Thursday afternoon was any indication, so too did the cash market.


...]]>
Current beef expectations https://wlj.net/article-14-current-beef-expectations.html Current beef expectations
Production estimates for this year were increased 58 million pounds to 24.34 billion pounds, mostly on increased carcass weights. This plus trade changes upped the estimates for per capita availability of beef by a half-pound to 54.6 pounds per person.


...]]>
North American livestock trade impacts current U.S. cattle supply https://wlj.net/article-14-north-american-livestock-trade-impacts-current-us-cattle-supply.html North American livestock trade impacts current U.S. cattle supply
In 2014, U.S. imports of Canadian slaughter steers and heifers represented 1.7 percent of total U.S. steer and heifer slaughter. These yearling slaughter cattle imports were up 13.9 percent from 2013 and included a 24 percent increase in slaughter heifers compared to a 7.


...]]>
Futures, beef prices trade sideways https://wlj.net/article-14-futures-beef-prices-trade-sideways.html Futures, beef prices trade sideways
Cash fed cattle trade developed slowly last week, though by Thursday afternoon prices paid for the slightly over 7,000 head that had been confirmed sold through the week were steady with the prior week. Live steers traded for $160, while dressed steers sold at $255....]]>
Today's unusual cattle markets https://wlj.net/article-14-todays-unusual-cattle-markets.html Today's unusual cattle markets
Unusual market conditions lead to unusual incentives that result in unusual market behavior. This makes markets unusually difficult to figure out. There is considerable variability in views across the industry about the current and coming fed cattle market for the remainder of 2015....]]>
Doing the slide in cattle marketing https://wlj.net/article-14-doing-the-slide-in-cattle-marketing.html Doing the slide in cattle marketing
You are at a feeder sale. A load of 400-pound calves sells for an average of $345 per hundredweight. Later in the day, a load of 700-pounders sells for an average of $225/cwt. What you’ve just seen is the market at work assigning relative value to the differing weights.


...]]>
Consumer beef demand continues to disappoint https://wlj.net/article-14-consumer-beef-demand-continues-to-disappoint.html Consumer beef demand continues to disappoint
Negotiated cash trade was slow to develop last week—as predicted—with only slightly more than 5,600 head of cattle reported traded by Thursday afternoon. Steers sold for $157-161 live and $253 dressed, steady to up $3 from the prior week’s cash prices.


...]]>
Steady Cattle on Feed placements surprise industry https://wlj.net/article-14-steady-cattle-on-feed-placements-surprise-industry.html Steady Cattle on Feed placements surprise industry
“USDA’s monthly Cattle On Feed report was the same song and pretty much the same verse,” said Steve Meyer and Len Steiner of the CME Daily Livestock Report of the recent report. They summed up the performance as “Big feeder cattle, low placement numbers, even lower marketings and tight, tight inventories.


...]]>
Final numbers for 2014 are in https://wlj.net/article-14-final-numbers-for-2014-are-in.html Final numbers for 2014 are in
In 2013, steers made up 50.1 percent of the total cattle processed. For 2014, that number is 51.8 percent. Heifer slaughter declined very slightly, from 28.6 percent in 2013 to 28.2 percent in 2014. Cow slaughter declined most notably—18.1 percent compared to 19.


...]]>
2015 Wholesale beef prices remain elevated https://wlj.net/article-14-2015-wholesale-beef-prices-remain-elevated.html 2015 Wholesale beef prices remain elevated
The spread, or difference, between the Choice beef cutout and pork carcass value, can indicate the relative demand for red meat proteins at the wholesale level.


...]]>
Production rates jump on packer profitability https://wlj.net/article-14-production-rates-jump-on-packer-profitability.html Production rates jump on packer profitability
Cash trade occurred surprisingly early last week, with over 13,000 head confirmed sold by Wednesday. By Thursday afternoon, the weekly total was up over 36,000 head with prices ranging between $157-160 live and $250- 253 dressed, down $2-3 from the prior week.


...]]>
CA drought continues: produce prices average https://wlj.net/article-14-ca-drought-continues-produce-prices-average.html CA drought continues: produce prices average
Despite these conditions, U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable price inflation is expected to be close to its historical average in 2015. USDA Economic Research Service predicts fresh fruit prices will increase 2.5-3.5 percent and fresh vegetable prices 2-3 percent.


...]]>
Incentives often boost conservation adoption https://wlj.net/article-14-incentives-often-boost-conservation-adoption.html Incentives often boost conservation adoption
If farmers would have adopted the practice even without financial incentive, however, the practices are not “additional,” and the payments provide income for farmers without improving environmental quality.


...]]>
Logistics to linguistics; building demand for beef overseas https://wlj.net/article-14-logistics-to-linguistics-building-demand-for-beef-overseas.html Logistics to linguistics; building demand for beef overseas
Beef exports add well beyond $300 to the value of each head of cattle annually, but without people like Dan Chase, Liz Wunderlich and Alberto Diaz, that number might not be so high. Wunderlich and Diaz each work in their own ways to build demand for U.


...]]>
2015 hay production projected to be steady, exports likely to rise https://wlj.net/article-14-2015-hay-production-projected-to-be-steady-exports-likely-to-rise.html 2015 hay production projected to be steady, exports likely to rise
Last year, 57.092 million acres were planted in all hay. The Prospective Plantings report, released earlier this month, projects all-hay acreage to increase very slightly to 57.093 million acres. Using the overall average yield from 2014 of 2.45 tons per acre, that acreage should result in 139.


...]]>
Low production rates drive beef market up https://wlj.net/article-14-low-production-rates-drive-beef-market-up.html Low production rates drive beef market up
Markets last week were reeling from the effects of a record low non-holiday processing rate the week before. Despite early-week predictions of 520,000 head, the week of April 6-11 saw only 502,000 head processed. It affected everything from futures to beef prices.


...]]>
Beef up in most recent WASDE https://wlj.net/article-14-beef-up-in-most-recent-wasde.html Beef up in most recent WASDE
The balances of beef in 2015 changed quite a bit in the most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. USDA raised its predictions on beef production by 150 million pounds (mp) to 24.28 billion pounds (bp) mostly on increased cow slaughter and heavier carcass weights.


...]]>
Weekly production cuts continue https://wlj.net/article-14-weekly-production-cuts-continue.html Weekly production cuts continue
Cash fed trade was again slow to develop last week as packers again tried to stave off paying for expensive cattle. Last week the price ball was more in their court, however. ...]]>
February meat exports lower year-over-year, but show improvement https://wlj.net/article-14-february-meat-exports-lower-year-over-year-but-show-improvement.html February meat exports lower year-over-year, but show improvement
While still impacted by severe congestion in the West Coast ports, February exports of U.S. beef, pork and lamb bounced back to some degree from the totals posted in January, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). ...]]>
Beef demand vs. cattle demand https://wlj.net/article-14-beef-demand-vs-cattle-demand.html Beef demand vs. cattle demand
Conversations about demand often devolve into arguments about proverbial apples and oranges. This happens on the topics of beef demand and cattle demand quite frequently. One party is talking about bad (beef) demand while the other party scratches their head, thinking about the record high prices they just got for their calves. ...]]>
Cutout gains on reduced production https://wlj.net/article-14-cutout-gains-on-reduced-production.html Cutout gains on reduced production
Cash trade was put off to the end of the short trade week last week. Due to Good Friday ahead of Easter, markets closed early last Thursday and were closed for the holiday. So packers, putting off spending money for cattle, had less time to stall last week…but they sure tried. ...]]>
Average farm income forecast down in 2015 https://wlj.net/article-14-average-farm-income-forecast-down-in-2015.html Average farm income forecast down in 2015
After historically high average net cash farm in- come (NCFI) in 2012 and 2013, average NCFI is expected to decline 22.7 percent in 2014F-15F for U.S. farm businesses (defined as farms with annual gross cash farm income greater than $350,000, or smaller operations where the operator’s primary occupation is farming), the lowest level since 2010-11. ...]]>
The margin matters: red ink during good times https://wlj.net/article-14-the-margin-matters-red-ink-during-good-times.html The margin matters: red ink during good times
Among the top proteins in the U.S. consumer’s diet, beef comes from the most diverse infrastructure of them all. The cattle and beef industry is so highly segmented that each segment exists in its own economic microcosm. When it comes to margins, the variety of this one, relatively small industry can be mind boggling. ...]]>
Live cattle futures, cutouts rally; packers still in the red https://wlj.net/article-14-live-cattle-futures-cutouts-rally-packers-still-in-the-red.html Live cattle futures, cutouts rally; packers still in the red
Again packers were holding out to the last minute to buy cattle last week. By Thursday afternoon, not even 4,000 head had been confirmed sold on the cash fed market with no hint of what the prices might be. ...]]>