WLJ - Markets https://wlj.net/articles.sec-14-1-markets.html Wed, 02 Sep 15 00:00:00 -0600 en hourly 1 Feed report does not surprise https://wlj.net/article-14-feed-report-does-not-surprise.html Feed report does not surprise
The results of the August Cattle on Feed report were not particularly unexpected. The reality matched almost perfectly with pre-report analyst estimates. For example, at 10 million head in feedlots with 1,000-head or greater capacities as of Aug. 1, the most recent on-feed population was up 2.


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Retail beef prices; Cattle on Feed and more USDA data https://wlj.net/article-14-retail-beef-prices-cattle-on-feed-and-more-usda-data.html Retail beef prices; Cattle on Feed and more USDA data
An assortment of new data was released recently. Choice retail beef prices for July decreased for the second month in a row, dropping 4.1 cents per pound from June to $636.5/cwt. Choice retail beef prices peaked in May at $641.2/ cwt. All-Fresh retail beef prices, however, continued to increase, setting a new record in July at $616.


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What China’s problems mean for U.S. beef - Direct impacts likely limited, but indirect ripple effects could be widespread https://wlj.net/article-14-what-china%25E2%2580%2599s-problems-mean-for-us-beef.html What China’s problems mean for U.S. beef - Direct impacts likely limited, but indirect ripple effects could be widespread
Last week saw one of the most spectacular falls in Chinese markets the world has been allowed to see. Last Monday alone, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SHCOMP) fell 8.5 percent, one of the largest single-day declines possible for the market. And this was only one day in a weekslong decline.


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Outside markets tank cash cattle, futures https://wlj.net/article-14-outside-markets-tank-cash-cattle-futures.html Outside markets tank cash cattle, futures
The cash fed cattle trade was sluggish at best with the leverage in the hands of the packers to buy cattle cheap. By Thursday, barely more than 8,500 head had been confirmed sold which was too slight a volume to set a trend. Live heifers traded between $140-145, but averages were on the lower end of the range, and dressed steers were going for $227.


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Cash cattle falter despite predictions https://wlj.net/article-14-cash-cattle-falter-despite-predictions.html Cash cattle falter despite predictions
Compared to the prior week, the cash fed cattle trade was rather lively in terms of pace if not price. The vast majority of trade was completed by Wednesday, and by Thursday over 94,000 head had been confirmed sold. Live cattle sold between $145-148 and dressed cattle sold between $231-233.


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Marketing tips for producers this fall https://wlj.net/article-14-marketing-tips-for-producers-this-fall.html Marketing tips for producers this fall
Feeder cattle prices have bounced off the recent summer lows. For the week ending August 14, 2015, the Oklahoma seven-market average price of 450-500-pound, Medium/ Large, number-one steers was $283.81/cwt., up from recent summer lows and $7-$8/cwt. higher than this time last year.


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For price insights, examine supply, demand https://wlj.net/article-14-for-price-insights-examine-supply-demand.html For price insights, examine supply, demand
A farmer recently asked a very simple but extremely relevant question at a market outlook meeting: “Will I ever see high grain prices again in my lifetime?” The farmer asking this question started his farming career in the early 1980s and remembers the low commodity prices and tough financial conditions in agriculture at the time.


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Stacked GE varieties of corn commonplace https://wlj.net/article-14-stacked-ge-varieties-of-corn-commonplace.html Stacked GE varieties of corn commonplace
Herbicide-tolerant (HT) crops, developed to survive application of specific herbicides that previously would have destroyed the crop along with the targeted weeds, provide farmers with a broader variety of options for effective weed control.


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International agricultural productivity growth uneven https://wlj.net/article-14-international-agricultural-productivity-growth-uneven.html International agricultural productivity growth uneven
Agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) is the difference between the aggregate total output of crop/livestock commodities and the combined use of land, labor, capital and material inputs employed in farm production.


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First-half exports reflect tough business climate for U.S. meat https://wlj.net/article-14-first-half-exports-reflect-tough-business-climate-for-us-meat.html First-half exports reflect tough business climate for U.S. meat
Beef export volume in June was down 8 percent from a year ago to 96,716 metric tons (mt), while export value fell 9 percent to $578.9 million. This was the second consecutive month that export value fell below last year’s level, resulting in first-half value being steady with 2014’s pace at $3.


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Beef cutout values gain rapidly on reduced kills https://wlj.net/article-14-beef-cutout-values-gain-rapidly-on-reduced-kills.html Beef cutout values gain rapidly on reduced kills
The cash fed trade trickled along last week with some pricesetting occurring as early as Wednesday at $153 live and $236- 238 dressed on just under 8,500 confirmed head. By close of trade Thursday, that number went to just under 9,500 head confirmed sold with dressed prices edging up to $240 on the high end.


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Prices projected down for cattle, corn in 2015-2016 https://wlj.net/article-14-prices-projected-down-for-cattle-corn-in-2015-2016.html Prices projected down for cattle, corn in 2015-2016
The August installment of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report showed expectations of reduced beef production, a continued beef trade deficit, and reduced annual prices for steers. On the corn front, the report predicts increased corn production and use.


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Feeder prices and fall grazing prospects https://wlj.net/article-14-feeder-prices-and-fall-grazing-prospects.html Feeder prices and fall grazing prospects
Oklahoma feeder cattle prices are currently at about the same level as this time last year. The difference is that cattle prices increased steadily last year and were on the way up. Hot dry weather in July and August this year has pulled feeder cattle prices seasonally lower from peaks in May and June.


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Parallels observed between current, 1997 El Niño https://wlj.net/article-14-parallels-observed-between-current-1997-el-nino.html Parallels observed between current, 1997 El Niño
Erik Norland, an economist at CME, compared how spot futures contract prices and futures spreads for a variety of commodities behaved in the 12-24 months after National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center Oceanic Niño Index signaled the beginning of an El Niño or La Niña.


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Avoid the tax follies https://wlj.net/article-14-avoid-the-tax-follies.html Avoid the tax follies
There are some comments about taxes that make me shudder. Here are five that cause me concern: • “I enjoy preparing my own return.” It’s rare, but on occasion I encounter that farm producer who does his own return. Today’s tax system is insanely complex, especially when business activity is in the mix.


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Population change uneven in rural America https://wlj.net/article-14-population-change-uneven-in-rural-america.html Population change uneven in rural America
The number of rural (nonmetropolitan) counties that lost population in 2010-14 reached a historic high of 1,310. The recent economic recession, increased global competition, and technological changes led to widespread job losses in rural manufacturing.


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Ag land values up slightly in 2015 https://wlj.net/article-14-ag-land-values-up-slightly-in-2015.html Ag land values up slightly in 2015
The annual agricultural Land Values report was released at the beginning of August. The report showed a flat to slightly up trend across the three classes of land values surveyed; farm real estate, crop land, and pasture land.


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Improved conditions allow market to eek higher https://wlj.net/article-14-improved-conditions-allow-market-to-eek-higher.html Improved conditions allow market to eek higher
The cash fed cattle market refused to develop last week with just over 2,600 head being confirmed sold by Thursday afternoon. Analysts expected that prices for the week would be steady to higher than the prior week’s $147-148 live and $232-235 dressed.


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$76.6 billion in total food imports in 2013 https://wlj.net/article-14-%2524766-billion-in-total-food-imports-in-2013.html $76.6 billion in total food imports in 2013
Imported food and beverages that were purchased directly by U.S. consumers (such as farm-raised shrimp from Thailand, fresh avocados from Mexico, and wines from Spain) accounted for $186.9 billion—13 percent of this total. The remaining 87 percent ($1.3 trillion) was spent on domestically-produced food and beverages.


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A million more beef females in the herd https://wlj.net/article-14-a-million-more-beef-females-in-the-herd.html A million more beef females in the herd
The mid-year Cattle Inventory report confirms that herd building is taking place at a meteoric pace… relatively speaking. The total cattle and calf herd was up 2.2 percent as of July 1 compared to July 1 of 2014 with 98.4 million head.


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Cutout may have hit bottom; cash fed cattle still looking https://wlj.net/article-14-cutout-may-have-hit-bottom-cash-fed-cattle-still-looking.html Cutout may have hit bottom; cash fed cattle still looking
“Seasonal lows are often scored during the second-half of July. Likewise, cash prices have scored their third quarter low during July in 10 of the previous 12 years. The hazard for this type of seasonal recovery to materialize this year is the lack of fed cattle marketings, which is creating a heavily.


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Feed report called bearish for higher placements https://wlj.net/article-14-feed-report-called-bearish-for-higher-placements.html Feed report called bearish for higher placements
Feedlot inventories as of July 1 in feedlots with 1,000-head or greater capacities stood at 10.24 million head, up 1.9 percent compared to July 1, 2014. This is mostly in line with the average pre-report industry projection of a 1.6 percent increase.


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Report show stores of boneless beef increase https://wlj.net/article-14-report-show-stores-of-boneless-beef-increase.html Report show stores of boneless beef increase
The most recent Cold Storage report shows a growing stock of all the major protein in U.S. warehouses. All told, stores of all meat (red meat and poultry) as of June 30 stood at 2.33 billion pounds, up 17 percent from the same time last year. Most of this increase came from increases in stored beef, though all the major proteins saw increases.


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Over 90 percent of U.S. crop acres GE in 2015 https://wlj.net/article-14-over-90-percent-of-us-crop-acres-ge-in-2015.html Over 90 percent of U.S. crop acres GE in 2015
Herbicide-tolerant (HT) crops, developed to survive the application of specific herbicides that previously would have destroyed the crop along with the targeted weeds, provide farmers with a broader variety of options for weed control. Insect-resistant crops (Bt) contain a gene from the soil bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis that produces a protein.


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Cutout prices search for a seasonal low https://wlj.net/article-14-cutout-prices-search-for-a-seasonal-low.html Cutout prices search for a seasonal low
Cash cattle trade was slow to develop last week ahead of the release of the monthly Cattle on Feed and bi-annual Cattle Inventory reports. By close of trade on Thursday, over 20,000 head had been confirmed sold with prices ranging from $144-147 live (averaging in the low $145s) and $230-233 dressed (averaging in the upper $231s).


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Unique U.S. beef and cattle trade situation continues https://wlj.net/article-14-unique-us-beef-and-cattle-trade-situation-continues.html Unique U.S. beef and cattle trade situation continues
The unique U.S. beef and cattle trade situation that developed in 2014 has continued in 2015. Falling beef production is keeping beef supplies tight and prices near record levels in the U.S. This discourages beef exports and attracts more beef and cattle imports.


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Summer meat demand explained https://wlj.net/article-14-summer-meat-demand-explained.html Summer meat demand explained
The All Fresh retail beef price was $6.114/lb., up $0.059 cents from May and up $0.606/lb. from one year ago. The June retail pork price was $3.703/lb., up $0.007/lb. from last month but $0.413/lb. lower than June of 2014. The retail broiler composite price was $1.


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Median farm income exceeds U.S. households https://wlj.net/article-14-median-farm-income-exceeds-us-households.html Median farm income exceeds U.S. households
Since USDA’s Agricultural Resource Management Survey began collecting data in 1996, the median income of farm households has risen while real U.S. median household income has remained essentially flat. This may be due to a variety of factors including farm consolidation, increasing commodity prices, and minimal increases in hourly wages for all U.S.


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Will corn be king again? https://wlj.net/article-14-will-corn-be-king-again.html Will corn be king again?
The most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was a boon to corn farmers and likely left a bitter taste in the mouths of cattle and beef ranchers concerned with the trade situation; corn stocks are down, meaning prices are up, and the U.S.


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Diminishing beef demand continues to weigh on markets https://wlj.net/article-14-diminishing-beef-demand-continues-to-weigh-on-markets.html Diminishing beef demand continues to weigh on markets
Cash fed cattle trade was slow to develop last week. By Thursday’s close of trade, not even 2,400 head had been confirmed sold for the week. Analysts expected that general cash trade would be a couple dollars lower than the prior week’s $150 live and $238-242 dressed prices.


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