There is understandably a lot of concern in the beef industry about beef demand in the coming months. The expected decrease in beef production in 2013 will likely represent a 3.3 percent decrease in domestic per capita supplies.
The cash live cattle trade was slow to develop last week as packers tried to play chicken with cattle feeders over buying inventory. Offers were firm at $127-128 live and $205 or more dressed. Limited bids of $123 live had surfaced in the south Plains by Wednesday, but beyond that, packers were silent on bidding and cattle feeders weren’t biting.
Due in large part to softer same-store sales and customer traffic levels, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) declined in December. The RPI—a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S.
The most recent Cattle Inventory report was released Friday, Feb. 1 and reported on all cattle— beef and dairy—in the U.S. herd as of the first of the year. Overall, the number of cattle and calves recorded was down 1.6 percent at 89.3 million head, making this the lowest Jan.
Cash fed cattle trade developed slowly by midweek last week. Small showlists and strength in the futures inspired some hope for the cash trade prices. The South Plains saw live trade on Wednesday at $124-125 and dressed at $197 but on light numbers. Bids were placed at $125 live in the Corn Belt but no trade had occurred.
is down 6 percent compared to last year’s Jan. 1 on-feed population of 11.86 million. Pre-report estimates had anticipated an on-feed level 95.6 percent of last year’s. The unrounded results were 94.4 percent, which was just within the low end of the pre-report estimate range.
There were almost no bids recorded last week, though trade did develop lightly by midweek. In the south Plains, live cattle traded at $122 and at $121-122 in the Corn Belt. Dressed cattle saw Corn Belt trade at $193 with instances of $194 in Iowa.
After a year of challenges, highlighted by the worst drought in more than a halfcentury, the U.S. red meat (beef, pork and lamb) industry is focusing on 2013 as a year of great opportunities to increase the value those agricultural exports bring to exporters, processors, producers and the broad American agricultural industry that supports them.
The most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was issued by USDA on Friday, Jan 11. The report showed several good things for beef, such as increased production estimates and reduced import projections, and also a number of surprising things for corn.
TX, beef processing facility effective at the close of business Friday, Feb.1, 2013, resulting primarily from the tight cattle supply brought about by years of drought in Texas and Southern Plains states. Approximately 2,000 people work at the Plainview facility, and they will receive company support.
Thursday, Jan. 3, saw the most recent Oxford Farming Conference where journalist, environmental activist, and now ex-anti-GM agitator, Mark Lynas described in no uncertain terms how he came to support GM technology and why others should, too. In his 51-minute speech, he apologized for his past activities and urged others to accept GM technology.
Buford noted that 2012 didn’t differ much in what drove sellers and potential buyers—the same economic and environmental pressures and political uncertainties existed—but that there was a lot more buyer confidence in 2012 than in 2011.
In last week’s short New Year’s week, cash trade was slow to develop despite the pressure on packers to buy for their first full-production week in a while. Showlists were overall larger across the country with Kansas being the only major cattle-feeding state to see smaller showlists.
The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) finished 2012 by signing off on a massive pipeline project that will carry water from rural counties along the Nevada-Utah line to thirsty Las Vegas. The controversial 263-mile water tube will stretch from rural areas to urban Las Vegas, home to 2 million people.
The Christmas holiday disrupted cattle markets all around last week. Production was expected to be down, so the urge to buy fed cattle was low on that front. On the other side, however, the fact packers are running out of contract cattle put some pressure on them to buy negotiated fed cattle.
21. Because of surprising placement numbers—down compared to last year, but not as down as expected—the report is being called bearish for live cattle futures by CME analysts. On-feed numbers were almost dead-on to pre-report expectations and marketings were slightly below expectations.
The cash fed cattle trade was slow to develop again last week, though not as slow as in recent prior weeks. Throughout the first half of the week, trade was nonexistent. Cattle feeders were asking $128-130 live and $202- 205 dressed and ignored the offers of $123 live in the Southern Plains and the $195 dressed bids.
No trend-setting trade had developed by Thursday afternoon last week. Expectations of continued sluggish demand, packers with plenty of contract cattle to work from, and futures making a steady upward run made for little motivation on the packer side.