In the last few weeks there has been much discussion regarding the direction of cattle prices. Many analysts have explained that although short-term price forecasts are mixed, the long-term price outlook is bearish due to an increasing cattle herd.
While the U.S. is the top dog in terms of production of quality beef, it is also an attractive destination for international beef trade. The U.S. cattle and beef industry may be eyeing Brazil and Argentina with the concern as competitors on the international market; those countries are eyeing the U.
Andrew Gottschalk of Hedgers’ Edge blamed the week’s lowered cash tone on the steep losses in the futures market, and it was not hard to see why. Over the course of the week, the December contract lost $7.33 to settle Thursday at $134.40. The February contract got off relatively easy, losing only $6.
September beef export volume fell 21 percent from a year ago in September to 79,474 metric tons (mt) and value was down 28 percent to $456.6 million—the lowest since January. For the first nine months of 2015, exports were down 12 percent in volume (782,705 mt) and 8 percent in value ($4.
Last week, the unheard of happened; southern California got rain. Hail, heavy rain and snow in the higher elevations resulted in flooding in some areas, but it was precipitation in the parched state. Despite this wet interlude, California’s intense drought continues.
While FSA announced more than $3.9 billion in commodity payments started to go out recently to roughly 800,000 farmers, FSA staff are concerned at least some farmers don’t understand the nuances of the ARC-County program. It isn’t like the old Direct Payments program because not everyone is going to receive a check.
Although same-store sales and customer traffic remained positive in September (most recent data), the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) registered a modest decline. The RPI—a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.
The cash fed cattle trade started up quickly last week, with over 54,000 head being confirmed sold by Wednesday. By Thursday afternoon, that number had grown to almost 65,000 head. Live cattle traded at $134-139, a wider range than seen the prior week, and $208-210 dressed, steady with the prior week.
September placements were close to expectations at 96 percent of last year, as were marketings at 98 percent of one year ago, leading to an Oct. 1 on-feed total of 10.2 million head or 102.3 percent of last year. The relatively strong marketings number was confirmed by a 5.
Beef prices typically experience a seasonal decline at the end of summer, but the decline in prices since August this year has been particularly steep, and the combination of abundant supplies and lower demand suggests cattle and beef prices could continue to decline.
Like it or not, it’s a global economy. U.S. meat goes out and foreign meat comes in. But where does made-in-America meat go and from where does the foreign meat hail? A recent USDA report examined the U.S. top meat trade partners, import regulations, and what to expect for the future of trade.
The cash cattle market was slow to get moving last week, potentially waiting on the Cattle on Feed report released last Friday. By Thursday not even 2,500 head had been confirmed sold, giving no indication of the potential direction of the market for the week.
The past couple months likely will go down as some of the most turbulent in memory for most cattle producers. At the heart of industry-wide price declines and rallies has been concern and uncertainty regarding both supply and demand fundamentals. Most of the near-term supply pressures related to extra-heavyweight fed cattle are well documented.
Fed cattle prices declined more than $20 per cwt. from late August to early October, and early estimates of September losses are as high as $350 per head, according to Purdue University Ag Economics Professor Michael Langemeier. If the trend continues, October losses could soar to $550 per head.
The most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reflects a host of international economics situations as they play out on the domestic market. Declining demand for U.S. meat is resulting in declining exports and more meat on the domestic market.
By close of trade on Thursday, not even 5,000 head had been confirmed sold in the negotiated sales. Those that had sold went for $123-126 live and $198 dressed. Though this volume was too low for setting any sort of market trend, the prices were within the upper level of the prior week’s price ranges.
A recent Cow/Calf Corner newsletter discussed cull cow grades. Remember cull cows that are destined to go to the packing house are graded by their fleshiness. The fattest cows are called “Breakers.” Moderately fleshed cows are “Boners.” Thin cows are called “Leans” or “Lights,” depending upon the weight of the cow.