Farm Bill veto likely

Conference committee negotiations on the new farm bill continue, though some appear to have lost hope for a presidential signature on the final version after President Bush has taken a hard-line stance against what he deems to be excessive spending in the bill.

Bush has long maintained that ‘budget gimmickry’ within the bill to make it appear less expensive than its actual long term cost is a sticking point for him. The bill’s current main features are a 70 percent increase in nutrition spending and a $6.5 billion increase in land stewardship programs. The spending increases are expected to be accounted for in a variety of ways, including a cut in crop insurance to the tune of $5.7 billion. Agricultural research and commodity support spending would also be cut by $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively.

Negotiators have said they expected the draft bill to be ready for a House vote by late in the week of May 5, but a number of the bill’s provisions have been highly controversial and will likely continue to hold up talks. Including the overall cost, the tighter farm program payment limits and program management rules for price support loans have come under White House scrutiny and it’s expected that the package could still change in an effort to make the bill ‘veto-proof.’

The bill’s current deadline for completion and presentation to Bush is May 16.

Until the bill’s actual language is released, it will be difficult to tell how real the veto threat is when it crosses the president’s desk, as administration aides will have to work with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to determine how much so-called budget gimmickry is contained in the bill. CBO estimates the cost of the proposed bill to have ballooned to $607 billion over 10 years.

Even with a veto threat looming, leading members of Congress have made it clear that if Bush vetoes the bill, they will be capable of overriding it. Democrats have been working to buy Republican votes in Congress by making Republicans believe that a move not to override the veto and produce a new farm bill would be political poison come election time. Bush has countered by attempting to lobby members of his own party in support of the bill by saying that a vote against veto would be a vote against a "bloated tax-raiser."

"We’ve got to get the votes to override a veto—and we will," said Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Tom Harkin, D-IA.

Harkin also mentioned Bush’s communication with Republicans in Congress regarding the bill, including Bob Goodlatte, R-VA, Republican leader on the House Agriculture Committee.

"I understand the president told Mr. Goodlatte basically he was going to veto the bill," said Harkin. "I tend to think that’s true."

The new Farm Bill will reach the floor of both chambers as a conference report, which is protected from amendment of any kind and requires a straight up or down vote.

While Bush seems inclined to allow another administration to take up the issue in another year, what will most certainly come under his watch is the discussion over renewable fuels mandates, which is reaching a fever pitch in Washington. So far, the renewable fuels standard has shown to be a hot topic as Americans’ pocketbooks are crunched by high fuel and food prices.

Change in the form of an energy policy backtrack could have drastic consequences for certain sectors of agriculture and would have a major impact on the next round of farm bill debates should the 2002 Farm Bill get extended. — Tait Berlier, WLJ Editor